USDCAD backs off toward 100/200 hour MAs The USDCAD was trading at 1.2654 last Wednesday ahead of the Bank of Canada rate decision. At that meeting the Bank of Canada raised rates by 50 BPs. The price of the USDCAD moved lower after the decision, falling below the 100 day MA, the 100 hour MA (blue line) and running down to the 200 hour MA before stalling (green line) the fall. On Thursday, the price fell below the 200 hour MA with the pair also moving below the 50% midpoint of the move up from the April low at 1.25387, but that break failed, and a move back to the upside was started. On Thursday, the high price reached 1.26412 – within a swing area between 1.26396 and 1.26452 (see green numbered circles). The high got within 13 pips from the price just before the rate decision. On Friday, the price action consolidated above and below its 100 hour moving average (blue line in the chart above). Today, the price moved back higher, and found resistance sellers once again within the swing area between 1.26396 and 1.26452 (green numbered circles). The high price today reached 1.2643 before rotating back to the downside of the last five or so trading hours. The price dip in the current hour did move below the 100 hour moving average (blue line), but has rebounded back above that key moving average (the low price reached 1.26024). That low today is still above the low from the first hour of trading at 1.2602 and above the 200 hour moving average 1.25944. It would take a move below both those levels to increase the bearish bias. Getting below the swing low from Thursday and Friday near 1.2586, would also be a hurdle to get to and through if the sellers are to increase their bearish bias. On the topside, the ups and downs since Thursday have seen the price move above and below its 100 day moving average at 1.25239. Watch that level on the topside for selling interest going forward in the short term. If the sellers are to take more control, staying below that 200 day moving average would be required.