Empire manufacturing index rebounds strongly
The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing index came in at 24.6 versus -11.8 in March. The estimate was for a rise to 0.50. Much better-than-expected report as new orders, prices paid (a new record), shipments lead the way higher.
New orders 25.1 versus -11.2 in last month
prices paid +86.4 a new record versus 73.8 last month
prices received 49.1 versus 56.1 last month
employment index +7.3 versus +14.5 last month
average employee workweek 10.0 verse 3.5 last month
shipments 34.5 versus -7.4 last month
unfilled orders 17.3 versus 13.1 last month
delivery time 21.8 versus 32.7 last month
inventories 13.6 versus 21.5 last month
Six month forward-looking guidance shows came in weaker than the March number but is still positive with inflation expectations six-month forward still elevated.
six month business conditions index +15.2 versus +36.6 in March
new orders 15.0 versus 41.1 last month
shipments 13.4 versus 42.3 last month
unfilled orders -5.5 versus 50.9 last month
delivery time a .2 versus 18.7 last month
inventories -4.5 versus 13.1 last month
prices paid 72.7 versus 72.9 last month
prices received 55.5 versus 58.9 last month
number of employees 25.8 versus 27.0 last month
average employee workweek 5.5 versus 50.0 last month
capital expenditures 31.8 verse 35.5 last month
technology spending 27.3 versus 23.4 last month
Of note in the forward guidance is a vast majority of the respondents still expect prices paid in prices received to be higher six-month forward. Concerns about inflation remaining embedded with inflation expectations rising makes these numbers a concern.
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From the NY Fed:
Business activity picked up markedly in New York State, according to firms responding to the April 2022Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index surged thirty-six points to 24.6. New orders and shipments grew strongly, and unfilled orders increased. Delivery times lengthened, though at a slower pace than in recent months, and inventories rose. Labor market indicators pointed to a small increase in employment and the average workweek. The prices paid index hit a record high, and the prices received index remained elevated. Plans for capital and technology spending were solid. Looking ahead, firms were significantly less optimistic about the six-month outlook than in recent month.